After an injury-riddled and bad-luck filled 2020 season, the Tohoku Rakuten Golden Eagles missed out on the Pacific League playoffs by just 2.5 games. After a hot 11-4 start, they (painfully) slowly slipped down the standings until landing in 4th place. Injuries aside, their league-high eight ties led them to underperform their Pythagorean win-loss record by 4 whole games. 2021 is a new year, though. Masahiro Tanaka has returned after a 7-year stint with the New York Yankees. The depth has improved with the additions of guys like Rusney Castillo and Brandon Dixon. While the SoftBank Hawks are surely still the favourites, this team’s potential is sky-high, and they could certainly compete for the PL pennant.
Starting Rotation
Despite multiple injuries to their two best starters, Takahiro Norimoto and Takayuki Kishi, the Eagles’ rotation held its own in 2020. As a staff, they finished 3rd in WAR in NPB with 20.8, but were middle of the pack in FIP(-) 4.26(101) and walk rate, and were near the bottom in strikeout rate. Though Hideaki Wakui did his best to carry the load on the mound, they lacked the depth required to soften the blow of losing both Norimoto and Kishi for extended periods of time. Young pitchers like Hayato Yuge, Ryota Ishibashi, and Yuki Matsui struggled in their starting opportunities and it never felt like they had any stability, aside from Wakui.
The rotation order has been announced as follows: Hideaki Wakui will start Opening Day on March 26, Masahiro Tanaka goes in game two, rookie Takahisa Hayakawa starts third, then Takayuki Kishi, Takahiro Norimoto, and Ryota Takinaka.
Wakui was easily Rakuten’s most consistent starter in 2020, posting a 2.9 WAR over 130 innings. The 16-year veteran is one of numerous former Seibu Lions on the squad, and, though he’s entering his age-35 season, is a reliable workhorse of a starter. 150 innings-plus with average to above-average production is a safe bet. He will take the hill on Opening Day against the Hokkaido Nippon-Ham Fighters.
Headlining the rotation (though not starting on Opening Day) is Masahiro Tanaka. What can be said about him that hasn’t been already? He’s perhaps the greatest Japanese pitcher of his generation. He’s pitched in numerous postseason games, has a Japan series ring, and is a two-time Sawamura award winner. As many fans are allowed in Rakuten Seimei Park Miyagi will surely give him a deserved ovation when he makes his first start in Tohoku since his infamous 2013 Japan series-clinching save.
2020 first-round pick Takahisa Hayakawa gets the nod as the third starter in the rotation to start the season. Possibly the best player available in last year’s draft, Hayakawa’s potential is sky-high, and giving him a shot in the NPB could be a huge jolt to this rotation. Featuring a low-to-mid 90s fastball and 2900(!) RPM slider, he may be ready to produce at the ichi-gun level right away. Putting him in the rotation right away is a fairly low-risk, high-reward move. If he isn’t ready, he can go down to the second team for awhile. If he’s ready, the Eagles have another good starter to throw out there once a week.
Takayuki Kishi is the second of three returning veteran starters. Another of the former Lions, Kishi managed just 11 starts in 2020 due to multiple stints on the DL. When he did pitch, the 36-year-old was excellent, posting 1.7 WAR and a 121 ERA+, including two complete games. Aside from his DL stints the past two seasons, Kishi has aged like fine wine, consistently posting 4-to-5WAR/150 innings for nearly a decade consecutive.
Takahiro Norimoto has the highest ceiling this year of the veteran starters in this rotation. Entering his age-30 season, the three-time PL All-star was consistently one of the best pitchers in NPB from his debut in 2013 until an elbow injury sustained two years ago derailed both his 2019 and 2020 seasons. If he can stay healthy this year, he should be back to his dominant self. With over 1300 innings, he has recorded 27.2 WAR and holds a 2.88 career FIP.
The final spot in the rotation is being handed to sophomore right-hander Ryota Takinaka. Takinaka quietly had a promising rookie campaign in 2020. Across 45 innings, he pitched to a 3.40 ERA, while surrendering just a single home run. Though it is a small sample size, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is concerning (1.93), he pitches to contact very effectively and may be someone who outperforms his FIP consistently.
At the end of the day, the success of this staff will come down to health. Should the four veteran starters remain (mostly) healthy throughout the year, Rakuten will have the best starting rotation in NPB. That’s a big if, though. When the main starters go down with their inevitable injuries, the depth starters will need to step up after a bad year last year. Takahiro Shiomi and Ryota Ishibashi are likely the next two in line, and both are coming off less than stellar 2020 seasons. They will also need Takinaka to replicate his rookie campaign.
Name to remember: Takahisa Hayakawa
Bullpen
The bullpen could be a strength for this team. Kazuhisa Makita and Yuki Matsui are likely to provide stability at the back end of games, but the middle innings are less certain. Alan Busenitz had a solid year in 2019, but took a step back last year, recording just 6.5 K/9. Kohei Morihara is the X-factor for this bullpen. He was excellent in 2019, as he put up a 1.97 ERA with 9.1 K/9, but was bad and injured in 2020. If he can return to his 2019 form, that would be a major boost to a shallow ‘pen.
Name to remember: Kohei Morihara
Position Players
Despite missing Eigoro Mogi for nearly half the season, compounded by the sudden downfall of Jabari Blash, the Eagles had NPB’s top offence in 2020. Racking up 557 runs and a team wRC+ of 112, the Hideto Asamura-led lineup looks poised to be near the top again. Stefen Romero, the DH/right fielder who posted a 152 wRC+ last year, departed for the Orix Buffaloes in the offseason, but the most of lineup remains intact. Though they are unlikely to be quite as potent as last year, this is still a formidable lineup with numerous high-ceiling players.
The outfield is, by far, the biggest question mark for this team. Hiroaki Shimauchi has left field locked up, but the other two spots could be rather volatile. Ryosuke Tatsumi manned centre for most of 2020 but has been disappointing at the plate thus far in his career (.227/.305/.345 in 651 PA). Yuya Ogoh has also played some centre field in his short career. Through 163 plate appearances, he has slashed .269/.377/.418 to go along with a 14.1% walk rate and eight stolen bases in 10 tries. Right field will likely be up for grabs between Kazuki Tanaka (.240/.305/.382) and former top-MLB-prospect Rusney Castillo. Tatsumi and Ogoh (in centre and right, respectively) are likely to get the nod on Opening Day, as Rusney Castillo won’t be yet ready to play.
The only other position that’s not set in stone is catcher. Hikaru Ohta will get the first opportunity as starting backstop, but his bat is a concern. An excellent defensive catcher, Ohta has slashed just .208/.292/.301 in 276 plate appearance long career. He’s shown potential at the plate in flashes (including leading the league in doubles after a couple of weeks last season) but needs more big-league experience. If he can become even a slightly below-average hitter (say, 90 wRC+) he will blossom into one of NPB’s best catchers. Should his season go downhill, guys like Takahiro Shimotsuma, Yuichi Adachi, and Tsuyoshi Ishihara are next in the pecking order.
On the infield, the Eagles are one of the strongest teams in Japan. The likely Opening Day lineup will feature Daichi Suzuki at first, Hideto Asamura at second, Eigoro Mogi manning third base, and Hiroto Kobukata playing shortstop. The 24-year-old Kobukata made waves as a rookie last year, finishing a close second in rookie of the year voting. In 112 games, he accumulated 3.2 WAR and posted a 119 wRC+. A solid defender with good speed, he could be the starting shortstop for years to come. Suzuki, ever the stabilizing force, was productive in 2020. Appearing in every game and making the PL Best Nine, he recorded 1.5 WAR and a 112wRC+. The numbers aren’t eye-popping, but his real value comes in his clubhouse leadership.
The two most important bats for Rakuten in 2021 are, without a doubt, Hideto Asamura and Eigoro Mogi. A perennial MVP-candidate at this point, Asamura is the team’s best player. He put up 5.7 WAR on the back of a 173 wRC+, while also leading NPB in home runs with 32. Also a solid defender, Asamura looks poised for another fantastic year, hopefully leading the Eagles to a pennant. Mogi, who’s been moved to third after the emergence of Kobukata, is perhaps the best third basemen in NPB, when healthy. The team captain has racked up 15.5 WAR in his career in 534 games, a 3.8 win-per-130-game pace, and he was on track for a 5.2 win season last year. Posting an .852 OPS in 2020, he’s also a solid defender with a good arm at third.
With that said, here’s how I would construct the lineup:
| Player | Pos | |
| Yuya Ogoh | 9 | The speed and walk rate are too much to resist, if he can get on base at a solid rate, he will be a perfect leadoff-man. Also has more pop than Kobukata, the other contender for this spot. |
| Eigoro Mogi | 5 | I’m a big proponent of putting your best hitter in the 2-hole, but having the flat-footed Asamura hit in front of the speedy Mogi is a no-go. |
| Hideto Asamura | 4 | One of the best hitters in NPB, straight up. Since the 3-spot comes up with empty bases slightly more often than the other spots, your best homerun hitter is a good fit. I considered placing him fourth, but he would be losing too many PAs over the course of the season there. |
| Hiroaki Shimauchi | 7 | Look up “consistent” in the Merriam-Webster Dictionary and you’ll see his face staring back at you. Plays every day and produces consistently, also an excellent defender in left field. |
| Hiroto Kobukata | 6 | A very promising sophomore. If he can find a little pop in his bat, he could develop into one of NPB’s best shortstops. Another solid defender. |
| Daichi Suzuki | 3 | Look up “consistent” in the Oxford Dictionary and you’ll see his face staring back at you. Plays every day and produces consistently, also a versatile defender on the infield. |
| Hikaru Ohta | 2 | A fantastic defender with sky-high potential if he can figure it out at the plate. Expect lots of caught stealers and few runs produced. |
| Ginji Akaminai | DH | No longer the player he once was. Posted a .586 OPS last year. Not unlikely he will lose his spot to someone like Rusney Castillo, Kazuki Tanaka, or Brandon Dixon. |
| Ryosuke Tatsumi | 8 | A good defender in centre who has good speed. Could develop into a solid starter, but the bat needs to improve, a lot. |
For the most part, this is roughly how I expect the actual starting lineup to look come opening day, with a few changes. Kobukata and Suzuki are likely to hit first and second, with Ogoh sliding down to the lower half of the order. Ogoh could also be replaced by Kazuki Tanaka, but I think Ogoh has the best shot currently.
I’m not going to discuss the bench in-depth, as it’s rather weak. There are a lot of guys who will be in and out throughout the year. The main players will be guys like Yuichi Adachi, Yasuhito Uchida, and whoever of Castillo/Tanaka/Dixon is not in the starting lineup.
Key Players
Hideto Asamura
As Rakuten’s most lethal offensive weapon, the scoring will go as he goes. If he’s hot, he can carry the entire lineup for weeks at a time. His defence at second base is a plus. The Eagles will need another MVP-caliber season out of him if they hope to truly compete with SoftBank. Luckily, he’s good enough to do that, and then some.
Takahiro Norimoto
Probably the pitcher with the highest ceiling (this year), staying healthy is the name of the game. He’s missed significant time with elbow injuries in each of the last two years, and his performance has suffered as a result. If he can get back to his top-five-pitcher-self, even the Hawks might be scared of a playoff series against this squad.
Ryosuke Tatsumi
Someone other than Shimauchi will need to step up in the outfield this year, and Tatsumi is likely to get the most playing time of the young outfielders. If he can figure it out at the plate, he can become an impact player with his solid defence and baserunning. The same could also be said about Kazuki Tanaka and Yuya Ogoh, so here’s hoping one of them has a breakout year.
Hikaru Ohta
Another guy who, if he figures it out at the plate, will become an impact player for the squad. His defence is already so good, he can stay in the lineup even when he’s slumping, but improving the bat would make him elite at his position.
Predictions and Conclusions
If they can stay healthy, this team can absolutely compete for the Pacific League Pennant in the regular season. They’re likely to have one of the league’s most potent lineups once more, and the pitching is hands down the best in NPB when healthy. It will certainly be a close race with the SoftBank Hawks, but there is at least a shot for the Eagles to come out on top. My conservative estimate is that Rakuten will finish a close second to SoftBank. At the very least, they can force a competitive Climax Series against the Hawks. I don’t think any other team has a real shot at the top two spots as of now. The Marines and the Lions will likely duke it out for the third and final playoff spot, but I don’t see either of them beating either the Eagles or the Hawks in a playoff series. Here are my predictions for the PL standings in 2021:
- SoftBank Hawks
- Rakuten Eagles
- Lotte Marines
- Seibu Lions
- Orix Buffaloes
- Nippon-Ham Fighters
Here’s to a great 2021 NPB season!
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